Drought risk mounts as South Africa heads into strong El Niño conditions
South Africans have been warned to brace for the possible impact of a strong El Niño weather pattern, with the South African Weather Service forecasting below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures across much of the country between October and December 2026.
Chief Economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz), Wandile Sihlobo, said the forecast is concerning as it points to the possibility of a drought.
However, he said the country was entering the difficult season from a stronger position than during previous droughts.
“South Africans should be concerned about the expected El Niño because what it signals is that we are heading towards a drought,” Sihlobo said.
He explained that South Africa has important buffers following an exceptionally productive 2025/26 agricultural season. The country recorded strong harvests across grains, oilseeds and fruit, while the extended rainfall season also helped improve soil moisture levels.
Sihlobo said these conditions could soften the impact of the expected dry spell.
“We are now heading towards this drought with higher stocks following the ample grain harvest of the previous season,” he said.
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The situation is expected to be more challenging for grain and oilseed farmers, most of whom depend on rainfall.
Sihlobo said only about 20% of grain and oilseed production is under irrigation, leaving the majority of the sector vulnerable to dry conditions.
He expects the 2026/27 season to result in a weaker grain harvest, despite farmers starting with relatively healthy soil moisture.
Fruit and vegetable producers, however, could be better protected because much of this production is supported by irrigation.
Sihlobo says major dams are currently at healthy levels, with many exceeding 80% capacity, providing some protection against the anticipated dry conditions.
The expected drought could also put upward pressure on food prices. South Africans have benefited from relatively subdued food inflation in 2026, helped by strong agricultural production and sufficient grain stocks.
Sihlobo said food price inflation could rise significantly next year, reaching between 5% and 6% in 2027, compared with an estimated average of between 2% and 2.5% this year.
“We are now going to go into the next year, and I think that we will see then food price inflation increasing,” he said.
However, he believes the country is unlikely to experience the severe food inflation seen during the 2014–2016 drought. During that period, food price inflation averaged around 10.8%.
One of the key buffers is maize. Sihlobo said the country has record maize stocks of about 17.4 million tonnes, compared with annual domestic consumption of roughly 12 million tonnes.
The agricultural sector is also dealing with rising input costs, adding another layer of pressure for farmers. Sihlobo points to fuel and fertiliser costs, which could be affected by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
“We have a cocktail of risks here.” he says, highlighting both the potential drought and higher input costs as major concerns for the sector.
Despite the risks, Sihlobo stresses that South Africa is not yet in crisis mode. The country’s relatively strong soil moisture, healthy dam levels and grain reserves provide a cushion as farmers prepare for the new season.
He said the extent of the drought’s impact would become clearer towards the end of October, when there would be a better indication of how much land farmers have planted.
“South Africans are not going to head towards an environment that is worse than we have seen in recent past,” Sihlobo said, adding that the 2014 - 2016 drought was likely more severe than what the country will face in the coming year.
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