Geopolitical tensions ‘a test’ for SA’s G20 leadership

Addressing a Gauteng G20 dialogue in Johannesburg on Tuesday,  international relations expert Dr Oscar van Heerden warned that South Africa must prepare for economic and diplomatic shifts that could impact its financial stability.  

Van Heerden explained that global power is increasingly concentrated between the United States and China, leaving Europe on the sidelines and emerging economies vulnerable to economic retaliation.  

He pointed to US sanctions on Russia, including the freezing of foreign reserves, as an example of how financial systems are being weaponised.

"As the unipolar superpower, the empire loses its influence and wanes in power, it has shifted its focus to GDP. However, they continue to exert control, as seen in Libya with 1,500 sanctions. 

“Regarding Russia, it’s important to note the unprecedented measures taken, such as freezing the country’s foreign reserves held in European banks - an action never seen before," he said.

He further warned that South Africa could face similar risks.  

“For South Africa, this is concerning. As we are now within the sights of the Trump administration, they could potentially seize our foreign reserves held in European and foreign banks, just as they did with Russia’s $300 billion in reserves. 

“They believed that would cripple the Russian economy, though it didn’t, largely due to oil, gas, and other factors.

“I’m uncertain whether we could survive such a move, and I’m not ruling it out. We must be cautious in our language, especially when dealing with the G20, as we’re up against an erratic leader of the world’s most powerful economy," he said.

He saif this is why BRICS nations are looking for alternatives, including a new currency and financial system, to reduce their dependence on Western-controlled institutions.  

"There’s a reason BRICS established the New Development Bank - to counter the agendas pushed by institutions like the IMF, World Bank, and, as we’ve heard, even the WTO, which primarily serve the interests of the global north and the collective west, often at our expense.

“Similarly, while still a long way off, there’s an ongoing discussion about a BRICS currency. If the current reserve currency can be manipulated, it poses a significant problem for many. 

“Lastly, there’s talk of creating an alternative international payment system, especially after Russia was removed from Visa, MasterCard, and SWIFT," said Van Heerden.

With South Africa hosting the G20 for the first time on the African continent, Van Heerden believes there is an opportunity to push the agenda of the Global South.

 "I believe this G20, held for the first time on the African continent, is determined to bring the plight of the global south to the forefront, with a particular focus on Africa. This is significant because it’s the first time the G20 is taking place in Africa.

“Globally, the progressive elements of the bourgeoisie, as well as the left, are in retreat. This shift has contributed to the resurgence of right-wing ideologies in Europe, Eastern Europe, and now in the United States,” he said, warning that the G20 Summit is already being overshadowed by broader geopolitical struggles.  

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