IRR: EFF poses a significant threat to ANC

South Africans will head to the polls on May 8. 

The IRR’s Head of Politics and Governance, Gareth van Onselen, released their February election poll sample results on Wednesday. 

The research institute says of the 1 611 people interviewed, 54.7% intent on voting for the ANC which is a decline of 7.4%  from 2014 provincial election. 

Van Onselen said the party's decline can be attributed to the EFF, which poses a significant threat in Gauteng. 

"The backbone of the EFF's national support is to be found in Gauteng, and that same national trend is at its most profound in this province where the party stands at 18.2% and the ANC on 41.6%. That's not just a huge gap to make up before elections for the ANC, but if it wants to win the province with an outright majority it needs to make up a 12% decline from the 53.6% it secured in the provincial ballot in 2014. So the ANC seems to be in real and genuine trouble in Gauteng."

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He said the ANC's challenge is to regain voters from the EFF, something which is unlikely to happen. 

"The ANC's general decline from 2014, can almost be attributed to the EFF. The two parties seem to be locked in a battle between for between 5 to 10 % of black voters and where these voters land up on the 8th of May at least will go somewhere to determining the fate of these parties."

According to Van Onselen, reasons for the decline include the legacy of former president Jacob Zuma legacy, revelations at the Zondo commission on state capture, as well as load-shedding. 

The IRR says while the Democratic Alliance (DA) is stable, the party's Gauteng growth won't be significant. However, due to its infighting and fall-outs, voters are heading back to the African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP) and the Freedom Front Plus (FFPlus). 

The institute will release another poll in the week before the elections but Van Onselen says he does not foresee a significant difference.