Malema’s firearm case could have far-reaching implications: Analyst
Political analyst Pieter Duvenhage said the pending judgment against Economic Freedom Fighter's leader, Julius Malema could have far-reaching implications, not only for his legal standing but also for his political authority, party dynamics, and voter perceptions.
Speaking ahead of the anticipated sentencing, Duvenhage said he believed Malema was unlikely to receive the maximum sentence but could still face serious consequences.
The East London Magistrate Court is expected to hand down sentencing, in KuGompo City, on Thursday.
Malema was found guilty of multiple charges, including unlawful possession of a firearm, discharging a firearm in a built-up area and reckless endangerment of people or property.
The incident occurred during the EFF’s birthday celebrations at the Sisa Dukashe Stadium in Mdantsane in July 2018.
“I’m thinking we’re going to at least 12 months sentence in jail or even longer… I don’t think it will go that way to 15 years, but I think it will be 12 months or above,” said Duvenhage.
Such an outcome, he explained, would immediately affect Malema’s role as a parliamentarian.
“It means that he can’t go back to Parliament but if he appeals, he can still be in Parliament the appeal process could be another year, two or three years. So, in a sense, even though Julius Malema is sentenced more harshly he can appeal but then he will have this appeal hanging over his head, constantly fighting court cases that could be difficult for him.”
However, he cautioned that the broader political climate appears to be shifting in ways that may not favour Malema.
“I don’t think Malema is, at the moment, as strong as he always was.”
He added that he believed recent controversies and legal pressures had weakened his standing.
“The Previous hate speech case against him, and then his name gets mentioned at the Madlanga commission. It seems like there’s a lot of things around him and I think it makes his case less likely to go away.”
The implications extend beyond Malema personally to the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) itself, particularly as the country moves closer to future elections.
Duvenhage further said that while the party’s core base was likely to remain loyal, other voters may respond differently.
“The loyal EFF supporters may deepen their solidarity and their mobilization for the party but for the undecided or the moderate voters the courtroom moment may add to a sense of instability and controversy around the party.”
He warned that this could further diminish the party’s electoral performance.
“Is the EFF not a one-man party? So, the day that Malema disappears, the party will also disappear,” he said, highlighting the risks of a leadership structure heavily centred on one individual.
On Malema’s claim that AfriForum attempting to silence him on racial grounds, Duvenhage cautioned against what he described as “playing the race card”.
“One must be careful here one can play the race card in this case, but South African politics is also moving a bit away from an absolute racialized rhetoric,” he added.
According to Duvenhage, there was a growing expectation among South Africans for a more balanced, and issue-based, political discourse.
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