Numbers, strong support needed to challenge Ramaphosa - analyst
Political analyst Levy Ndou believes any challenger to President Cyril Ramaphosa at the ANC’s national conference will have to be sure about his or her support.
Ndou's remarks come as the ANC starts its preparations for its national elective conference in December, where members will elect the leadership for the next five years.
The nomination process for the national executive committee members was due to start on Wednesday, but it has been postponed to allow the leadership to audit its membership figures.
Current ANC President Cyril Ramaphosa is gunning for a second term.
Ndou says at this stage, no one seems to be contesting Ramaphosa, but branches still have time to nominate a rival.
"At this stage, it appears as if there is no one available to contest Ramaphosa, but there is a possibility that you can still find other branches coming up with their own preferences. Remember, the actual nominations are only going to open soon and branches might still come with their own preferences.
“But what is also very important is that when a person is nominated they should have sufficient support to be able to stand and win. So anything is still possible but at this stage, it still appears as if for the presidency, the person that appears to be spoken about on a regular basis remains President Ramaphosa," says Ndou.
Ndou says the position of deputy president seems to be tightly contested.
"According to the processes in the ANC, they do allow people to be nominated from the floor at the conference. But that will require someone who is very sure about the numbers. What we do know now is that there are a number of provinces that have already declared their preferences.
“But it is still early to determine exactly what might be the picture as we move forward because provinces still have to make their own preferences heard. Equally they need to lobby and convince one another on the issues of leadership.”
“We have got those that are known to be contenders, already those who are being mentioned, President Cyril Ramaphosa, Paul Mashatile, Stan Mathabatha, Ronald Lamola, Deputy President David Mabuza, Mmamoloko Kubayi and many others. But whether we like it or not, the journey is still long and anything can happen in the buildup until the last date of voting at the conference," he adds.
Lamola, Kubayi , Mashatile and Mabuza are all vying for the position of deputy president while Mathabata is thought to be gunning to replace Gwede Mantashe as chairperson.
The ANC in Limpopo has already resolved to support Mashatile for the position of deputy president and its current provincial chairperson, Mathabatha, for the position of national chairperson.
The conference will take place from 16 to 21 December at the Nasrec in Johannesburg.
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