SADC withdrawal will make Kagame ‘more arrogant’

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) decised last week to end its peacekeeping mission in the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

The announcement came after a critical meeting of SADC heads of state on Thursday, where the mandate of peacekeeping forces, which included troops from South Africa, Malawi, and Tanzania, was officially terminated. 

These forces had been stationed in the volatile region since December 2023, attempting to mitigate the effects of the ongoing conflict, particularly with the M23 rebel group, which has been linked to Rwanda.

The SADC heads, including South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa, ordered the phased withdrawal of the forces, raising concerns about the region's security post-withdrawal.

Senokoane said that Kagame's actions would likely become more assertive following the decision: "We must agree that Paul Kagame, where he is now, is still going to be more arrogant and stubborn in trying to get whatever he wants out of the DRC."

The political analyst warned that the withdrawal could severely weaken security in the Goma region, as the DRC's military forces have struggled to operate independently without the support of international peacekeeping forces. 

"The reality of the matter is that this will weaken the security in the DRC. That one is a given, because the DRC military force has not been able to survive without the support that it has been getting from the UN convoy and, in this case, also, the SADC peacekeeping forces," Senokoane said.

The end of the peacekeeping mission is also seen as a blow to the credibility of peacekeeping efforts in Africa, especially in conflict zones like the DRC. 

Senokoane warned that this decision could undermine future peacekeeping missions, saying, “People will start undermining any efforts by SADC or any peacekeeping missions in the future, because people will say look we are dealing with a weaker SADC. It’s a sad story to tell and it’s a reality that South Africa and other nations within SADC will have to go back to the drawing board.”

The conflict has already resulted in the deaths of 14 South African soldiers, prompting political calls for the immediate withdrawal of troops. 

Senokoane further pointed out the impact this withdrawal has on South Africa's standing as a regional superpower. 

“South Africa is seen as this superpower in the continent, and by virtue of it pulling away, it does not reflect well in terms of the country’s military strength and political influence," he said. "Other nations will want to share the same view or similar view that South Africa is weakened.”

Senokoane emphasized the need for SADC to reassess its military strategy, arguing that future peacekeeping efforts require stronger resources and better military capacity. 

"We need to invest a lot of resources in ensuring that our military is strengthened, especially the joint military operations, but beyond that, individual countries must invest in ensuring that their own military is very strong."

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