SAWS warns strong El Niño could bring hotter, drier conditions to South Africa
A strong El Niño has formed in the tropical Pacific and is expected to intensify into a very strong event this spring, raising concerns about drier conditions, higher temperatures, and potentially severe heatwaves across southern Africa.
South African Weather Service forecaster Cobus Olivier said the latest ocean temperature measurements have already exceeded the threshold used to classify an El Niño as very strong.
Olivier said forecasts indicate the event could intensify further, potentially becoming the strongest El Niño in living memory.
A strong El Niño is defined as sea surface temperatures in the eastern-central tropical Pacific exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius above normal, while a very strong event occurs when temperatures exceed 2 degrees above normal.
According to Olivier, the latest forecasts indicate that temperatures in this region of the Pacific could exceed three degrees Celsius above normal.
"Most El Niño events bring conditions of below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures to the southern African region."
He referred to the 1982/83 and 2015/16 El Niño events, which were associated with widespread drought across southern Africa.
However, Olivier cautioned that El Niño does not automatically lead to drought across the entire region.
"The 1997/98 very strong El Niño event, for example, was associated with slightly above-normal rainfall over parts of South Africa’s summer rainfall region."
The latest seasonal forecast from the South African Weather Service indicates that below-normal rainfall is the most likely outcome over most of South Africa between October and December 2026.
At the same time, above-normal temperatures are expected across much of the country.
Olivier added that the outlook for November 2026 to January 2027 is broadly similar, with drier and warmer conditions expected to dominate over most of South Africa.
The combination of an exceptionally strong El Niño and ongoing global warming could also increase the frequency and severity of heatwaves.
Olivier said the region has continued to warm since the last very strong El Niño in 2015/16, which brought unprecedented heatwaves to southern Africa.
"If the 2026/27 El Niño event brings the expected below-normal rainfall to southern Africa, it is likely that a high frequency of heatwaves will co-occur," he said.
"These heatwaves have the potential to be severe," Olivier stated.
Olivier said the expected combination of heat and reduced rainfall could also place additional pressure on water resources, although uncertainty remains about the eventual strength of El Niño and its precise regional impacts.
ALSO READ
