After months of speculation, a Cabinet reshuffle still looms

It is South Africa's worst kept secret. Despite repeated rhetoric by senior politicians that all is well within the governing party, it is more than evident that the ANC has deep divisions. While President Jacob Zuma is yet to make use of his 'silver bullet' - axing or moving opponents in his Cabinet - it remains a pivotal weapon in his endgame arsenal.

This crack - stretching from the floor to the ceiling - contains small parts of poly filler, some of which have again been damaged. Other parts of the divide have been fingered to the extent where demolition is the only remaining option.

But the war for control over the ANC - and by extension the state - is being waged in government departments, often at the expense of those who elected the officials into office. 

We've seen resignation calls from across the alliance and party structures and the appointment of Brian Molefe as an MP. Let's not forget the social grants debacle, which has now taken centre stage. Observers have to use these disputes to determine who belongs in which camp, because politics is the one thing politicians avoid discussing in public. So here is the breakdown.

The Finance Minister has been at the centre of the battle, which makes him the most obvious member of the camp opposed to Jacob Zuma. With him is Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa who has publicly supported the Finance Minister. His intentions to succeed Zuma - while not being his boss' preferred candidate - further defines what has been referred to as the 'reformist' camp.

The other side, those who depend on patronage from Zuma, includes Social Development Minister Bathabile Dlamini who, in her capacity as ANCWL president, publicly advocates for Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma as the next president of the ANC. Alongside her is long-time Zuma supporter, State Security Minister David Mahlobo.

The Ministers of Tourism Derek Hanekom and Economic Development Ibrahim Patel are believed to be included in the anti-Zuma camp, while the Ministers of Communications Faith Muthambi, Cooperative Governance Des van Rooyen and Mineral Resources Mosebenzi Zwane are - for obvious reasons - believed to be firmly in the president's corner.

There have been numerous warnings from both alliance partners and officials within the ANC of the possible consequences that come with factionalism. The most recent came from Cosatu's Western Cape secretary Tony Ehrenreich. "We need to consider the fact that the national democratic revolution is on trial," he told mourners at the memorial service of the late Judge Essa Moosa.

But these utterances often go unheard, as control for the ANC has become the core focus, especially given the fact that it is an election year for the party. So if the president is so set on removing his opponents and awarding his friends, why has he not done so?

Political analyst Mzukisi Qobo - who believes a reshuffle is more than likely - says changes to the Cabinet can't be seen as targeting political opponents. Neither can it be too obvious that the president is awarding loyalists. Coupled with that is the risk that come with any major changes.

Amid speculation that senior ministers threatened resignation following the sacking of Nhlanhla Nene as Finance Minister (who by the way is still waiting for a call from the BRICS bank), calculating the risks is most likely the only thing keeping everyone in their current posts, including Gordhan who is portrayed as the primary target. "He (Zuma) doesn't know how those he leaves (out)… would behave post reshuffle," says Qobo, adding, "I do think he is making all of those calculations." 

The president has made a number of changes to his cabinet in the past. Those changes often came as a surprise to the public, and could therefore be sold, to an extent. However, given the current political climate, even the slightest change would be considered a move on Zuma's opponents. 

Some politicians have cautioned, in public, against advancing factionalism, such is the extent of the divide. Speaking to the Mail and Guardian about Zuma's prerogative to appoint and dismiss ministers, SACP deputy general secretary Solly Mapaila had this warning: "The prerogative right doesn't belong to him as an individual; it belongs to the movement. He is just privileged to be the chosen one to exercise this right on behalf of the movement."

It is highly unlikely that Zuma will leave the elective conference to chance. He is well aware of the fate that awaits the incumbent president of the republic, if he is not on good terms with the new president of the party. And as soon as he is convinced that he can mitigate the costs, he is sure to get rid of his opponents. Even if it means picking them off one by one.