Is David Mabuza a kingmaker? asks Samkele Maseko
The ANC in Mpumalanga has experienced its fair share of turbulence in recent years. Some would argue these troubled times aren't confined to this province, and they'd be right. The ANC as a party is struggling. But will the center hold?
In Mpumalanga there were clear divisions between the tripartite alliance. The SACP in the province threatened on several occasions to go to the polls alone and even took the debate to the communist National General Council. Central to all of this - David Mabuza.
Mabuza is the premier and provincial ANC chair. And while provinces quibble, argue and fight as the party heads to its elective conference in December, Mabuza appears to be pushing for another scenario to unfold at that time. That scenario sees him emerging as a candidate for the deputy presidency. It's a position his province seems to support.
Mabuza recently had this to say about the current state of affairs within the party - "We don't want to be part of the problem of dividing the ANC, but we want to be part of the solution. We are ready to unite the party. I personally won't be part of a divisive slate that will further fracture this elephant and bring it to its knees. The time for unity has come."
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He has become known as the thinker within the so-called ANC Premier League - the premiers of the North West, Mpumalanga and the Free State, who up until recently, seemed to support Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma as the next party president. But wider divisions, beyond the League, are glaring, and support for Dlamini-Zuma doesn't seem at all stable. While the ANC Women's League is unequivocal in its support for her, the ANC YL deputy president Desmond Moela had this to say when asked about her bid for higher office : "Are you referring to the old woman? Do you really think she will be president of the ANC? Don't you think its time DD ( Mabuza) ascended to the thrown? I mean like we are the only united province, all others are divided," he said.
Whatever scenario emerges this much is clear - David Mabuza can no longer stay on as provincial chair. He has served out three terms. His aspirations to the deputy presidency is therefore not that far fetched. If he manages to unite his province, he is assured of a block vote. This is huge and unlike other provinces, where divisions could lead to serious friction.
His popularity within the province can also not be questioned. Provincial rallies have seen filled up stadia and the province always has a strong showing at national party events. Analysts have pointed out the powerhouse that is KZN - a province that could control the elective conference outcome -is at this stage not at all clear in its backing of just one candidate. The names of Cyril Ramaphosa, Zweli Mkhize and Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma have emerge.
There might be many surprises yet as the ruling party heads for its all important December meeting. The year is long and the political landscape fraught with twists and turns. Interesting times lie ahead. Perhaps a time that could be favourable to the man from Mpumalanga. Let's watch this space.