Farmers on edge as US slaps 30% tariffs on SA

The move by the Trump administration could cost local producers hundreds of millions of rands and deepen uncertainty about the future of US-South Africa trade relations.

The new tariff, which follows months of simmering diplomatic and trade tensions, particularly around South Africa’s foreign policy stance and its perceived alignment with Russia and China, has raised fresh concerns over the future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).

AGOA, a preferential trade agreement, has allowed South Africa and other African nations duty-free access to US markets for certain goods since 2000.

However, South Africa's participation has been under pressure in recent years due to geopolitical concerns, including the controversial docking of the Russian vessel Lady R in Simon’s Town, as well as differing positions on the war in Ukraine and conflicts in the Middle East.

Speaking at the Institute for Security Studies seminar, Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber (Agbiz), warned that the implications for the agricultural sector could be severe.

"The US is only four per cent of our agricultural export market, but that’s still worth over half a billion dollars. The 30% tariff will hurt producers, especially in the Western Cape, Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal."

High-value exports such as citrus, wine, nuts, and fresh produce stand to be affected, potentially displacing South African goods in a competitive global market.

Sihlobo said the tariff decision should not come as a surprise, citing long-standing tensions with Washington dating back to the 2015 AGOA renewal, which was nearly derailed by disputes over poultry and pork imports.

"Even back then, the US signalled it was reassessing South Africa’s eligibility. We should have followed Kenya’s lead in negotiating a bilateral trade agreement with the US, but we’ve lagged behind."

Kenya, also a major beneficiary of the AGOA, initiated talks with the US in 2020 to establish a free trade agreement that would replace AGOA benefits with a permanent framework.

Sihlobo stressed that a bilateral agreement would give South Africa more certainty and better protection against abrupt trade shocks.

-BRICS – no quick fix-

The recent BRICS summit hosted in Rio de Janeiro drew attention to the bloc's ambitions, but Sihlobo cautioned against seeing BRICS as a replacement for traditional trade partners.

"We’ve just concluded a three-day BRICS summit, but there is no meaningful trade framework within the bloc. We need to diversify our export markets, including the Middle East, but BRICS, for now, lacks the structure to provide real economic relief."

With AGOA set to expire in September, South Africa faces an uphill battle to remain in Washington’s good books. The trade preferences have been critical not only for agriculture but also for sectors like automotive, manufacturing, and textiles.

Sihlobo urged the South African government, along with business leaders and trade envoys, to engage proactively with the US to seek a more stable bilateral arrangement.

"In the short term, we’ll feel the cost. But in the long term, we must rethink our trade strategy. That means bilateral deals, better diplomacy, and real export diversification."

Meanwhile, farmers and exporters are left with a familiar uncertainty—waiting for clarity while navigating rising input costs, volatile weather, and geopolitical headwinds beyond their control.

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