Most South Africans say survival of GNU ‘likely’ -IRR

The IRR’s Herman Pretorius briefed the media on the institute's latest opinion poll on the state of South Africa on Tuesday morning.

During the first 100 days in office, the two biggest political parties in the GNU, the ANC and the DA, have been at loggerheads over issues such as the Basic Educational Laws Amendment Act and the implementation of the National Health Insurance. 

Pretorius said that failing to maintain the GNU formation for a full term will allow parties such as the EFF and the MK Party to gain more traction.

"Two-thirds of South Africans, 66%, say it is likely, 21%, saying it is unlikely,  and 12% undecided. Within this data, the political parties shouldn't just see an estimation of what South Africans see happening over the next five years but also something of hope, an expectation that the DA and the ANC will remain together over the next five years in the GNU.

"A failure to meet that expectation will be one of those political developments that could empower the Progressive Caucus Alliance to gain more political traction because within this 66% indicating a likelihood of the ANC and the DA maintaining the  GNU for a full term, there is the baked-in disappointment that would have political consequences were that not to occur."

Pretorius added that the government of national unity had earned the political right to exist.

"The GNU seems to have earned the political right to exist, but…that right is one that can be democratically rescinded given the right circumstances. If we then look at the GNU's favourability ratings, we see a moderate balance in favour of the GNU."