Electricity minister hits back at IRP critics

Minister in the Presidency Khumbudzo Ntshavheni confirmed the approval of the draft Integrated Resource Plan 2023 in December.

Ntshavheni said it will serve as a guide for government procurement of new generation capacity with improved changes from the IRP 2019.

"The draft IRP 2023 reviews the approved IRP 2019 and covers two-time horizons, namely the 2030- and 2050-time horizons.

"Several key assumptions used in the IRP 2019 have significantly changed, including the electricity demand projection, Eskom’s energy availability factor, Eskom’s coal-fired power plants shutdown plan, as well as the cost of new power generation technologies.

"The 2030-time horizon (Horizon One) focuses on addressing prevailing generation capacity constraints, whereas the 2031 – 2050-time horizon (Horizon 2) focuses on an analysis of the energy mix pathways for sustainable security of supply.

"For Horizon One – five scenarios have been developed and assessed based on the state of readiness of projects in the pipeline. For Horizon 2, six energy pathways were considered to assess the impact of the different energy technologies in ensuring the country’s power system security of supply at the least cost to the economy. The reference pathway establishes a benchmark against other pathways based on the least cost.

"The five other pathways are based on certain guiding policy principles, and they are designed to be exploratory in nature. These policy principles were formulated with a focus on decarbonising the power system, shutting down of existing coal-fired power stations post 2035, and exploring clean coal technologies including carbon capture," added Ntshavheni.

Ramokgopa briefed the media on Tuesday morning on the ongoing energy crisis in the country.

 The plan, which was approved by the cabinet in December, has been criticised by some energy experts, who believe it lacks coherence and logic.

The final draft was quietly published by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy for public comment on Thursday last week.

Among other things, the plan proposes amending the decommissioning schedule for Eskom's end-of-life power stations.

However, experts say the plan does not provide a solution to load shedding.

Ramokgopa hit back, saying the IRP was not an intervention to end load-shedding but a long-term energy plan for South Africa.

"If you look at the IRP, it makes a number of admissions there, it makes an admission that firstly is the policy intervention over a period of time."

Ramokgopa has urged experts to make official submissions through the public comment process.

"I really do want to encourage experts, commentators and everyone in the industry to make those submissions as it is important. If they create a platform for oral hearings, people must take the opportunity to make those submissions; if there is no oral hearing, it’s written submissions. We really do encourage people to make those submissions."

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