Analyst: Mbeki 'could move needle' for ANC in elections
Political analyst Piet Croucamp believes former president Thabo Mbeki's voice will carry significant weight in the run-up to the general elections later this year.
The governing party is reportedly “desperate” for Mbeki to join it on the campaign trail ahead of what is expected to be the most hotly-contested polls since 1994.
Some analysts believe support for the ANC could drop below 50% nationally for the first time as the country battles load shedding, slow economic growth and endemic corruption.
Croucamp says opposition parties will be quick to point to Mbeki's disastrous HIV/AIDS policies while in office.
More than 330,000 people reportedly died prematurely from HIV/AIDS between 2000 and 2005 due to the Mbeki government’s obstruction of life-saving treatment, and at least 35,000 babies were born with HIV infections that experts believe could have been prevented.
However, Croucamp says unemployment was much lower during Mbeki’s tenure, the economy grew by 4.1%, and there was less corruption in government.
Croucamp says Mbeki still has the power to instil a degree of trust in the government and the ANC.
"Mbeki speaking in support of the ANC can have a significant effect. We already know that President Cyril Ramaphosa is more popular than the ANC, which means individuals can have a significant impact.
"It’s quite possible that both Mbeki and Ramaphosa can add a percentage point of two or three to the ANC support base.”
He says Mbeki is aware of the impact his words could have on the decisions taken at the ballot box.
"He will make his support expensive because he has had his problems in the past with President Cyril Ramaphosa. He has expressed as much it in the National Executive Committee, especially problems that relate to Phala Phala.
"He has strong views about the way the economy is managed, how Black Economic Empowerment is managed.
"So yes, it is quite possible that if he decides not to vote for the ANC, it will have an impact on people who decide to stay away. But if he decides to campaign for the ANC, he can shift the needle by one or two percentage points.
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