Crime levels are worsening, warns research institute

The crime reseach institute released its data analysis on Tuesday morning ahead of the latest crime statistics, which are expected to be made public on Friday.

Between January and March 2023, murder went up by 3.4% year-on-year nationally.

The majority of the killings took place in the KwaZulu-Natal, Western Cape and Gauteng.

Senior Researcher at the institute, Dr Jean Redpath, says the murder rate in the Western Cape is showing some signs of stabilising. .

"The murder rate in the Western Cape remains high, still higher than that of the country as a whole.  However, it is stabilising and may even be reducing slightly, which is in contrast to the national trend, which in previous years the province tended to follow closely.

“While some of the divergence from national may be due to relative resilience of the province in terms of load shedding, slightly better employment trends, extent of the improvements in some LEAP (Law Enforcement Advancement Plan) areas does not appear to be easily explainable by other factors, although SAPS allocations may play in a role.

“The trend since mid-2021, although toward a reduction in murder, is insufficiently marked to halve the murder rate by 2029.

"If the current trend continues, by the end of 2029 the number of murders will still be approximately the same, although the population will have grown to 8.2 million," said Redpath.

At the same time, Redpath warned crime is worsening at a national level.

"National trends are worsening and explainable by unemployment, insufficiently targeted criminal justice, and loadshedding. Possibility that load-shedding trends explain significant percentage of quarterly changes. This may become less so as resilience improves.

“What is needed is a recognition of crisis,  focus on load-shedding resilience, employment and galvanised criminal justice system,” she added.

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