Last round of Paris climate talks

But as the COP21 climate talks entered their High Level Segment Monday – the most contentious and highly-charged part of the negotiations – the most senior officials at the summit appeared to be lowering expectations of a robust, legally-binding climate deal.

While some agreement is expected before delegates go home this weekend, the substance of the deal remains in question, with a “legally binding” agreement to curb greenhouse gas emissions – as demanded by South Africa and many other nations – apparently already off the table.

More than 40,000 delegates have gathered in Paris to hammer out a deal that would limit emissions enough to keep the rise in the world’s average temperature to below two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. This is the ceiling beyond which scientists expect dangerous climate change, with potentially disastrous impacts.

A total of 186 countries – collectively responsible for close to 100 percent of global carbon emissions – have already submitted national plans on how they will cut domestic emissions from 2020 onwards. Yet experts believe the existing commitments, which form the backbone of a Paris deal, would still not stop the global temperature rising above two degrees. Some experts believe it would allow the temperature to rise as high as four degrees

Negotiating parties agree more action will be required, but little progress has been made on agreeing exactly what.

“Sometimes perfection may be our enemy,” UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon warned Monday.

“We are not living in a world of perfection. We see so many troubles, wars, poverty and disease. We are not living in an ideal world,” he said.

Proposing five-yearly reviews of the national voluntary emissions targets, Ban suggested there would be future opportunities to scale up ambition in that regard, without it needing to happen in Paris.

“The ambition of the agreement is actually going to be judged on whether we can move toward that decarbonisation in time to still stay within the ‘below 2 degree window’, and that remains to be seen,” said UN climate chief Christiana Figueres.

The United States – a key player in the talks – has made it clear that it will not sign onto a deal with legally binding emissions commitments, but would only support a monitoring and review system with legal force.

The ministerial sessions are focussing on a draft text, adopted on Saturday, which contains a plethora of options that will define the ambition and strength of a Paris agreement. Negotiators must find consensus on more than 900 outstanding issues by the end of the week.

Several areas of conflict have dogged the discussions in the French capital since they began on November 30. They include the traditional sharp rift between rich and poor nations, about how much the rich countries should give the poor countries to help them combat global warming.

COP21 president and French foreign minister Laurent Fabius has appointed 14 ministers to act as “ambassadors of compromise” for the last four days of negotiations, warning them to expect late nights.

The “Comité de Paris”, as the group is known, will spend their days attempting to broker common ground between dissenting countries on four “big issues”, including how to increase emissions cuts and on the implementation of cash transfer programmes to poor countries.

Fabius described the general spirit at the talks as “positive” with delegations working in a “determined manner”.

Meanwhile, African countries, many of whom will bear the brunt of climate change, continue to lobby for more resources to help them adapt, and civil society voices from the continent are growing increasingly shrill.

“Don’t make Africa a graveyard!” pleaded Reverend Dr Tolbert Jallah of the Pan African Climate Justice Alliance Monday. “Anything less than a transparent, legally binding agreement would cause irreparable damage to Africa and the rest of the developing world.”

Current official rhetoric suggests he will be disappointed.

A new, revised version of the text is expected on Wednesday, for final revisions.