ANC leadership race: 'Dlamini-Zuma the early frontrunner'

The ruling party will elect a new leader at its elective congress in December.

But political analyst Aubrey Matshiqi warns that eight months is a long time in politics.

"What is clear at the moment is that as far as the dominant faction in the ANC is concerned - the faction that supports Jacob Zuma - that faction supports Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma and therefore, I would say she is the frontrunner at the moment," says Matshiqi.

Matshiqi says Deputy President Ramaphosa needs to gain more support from within the ANC. 

"The challenge facing Cyril Ramaphosa is to create a new majority in the ANC. A majority that will keep the balance in his favour and I think that's going to be a very difficult challenge," says Matshiqi.

Ramaphosa publicly spoke out against President Zuma's reasons for axing former Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan. 

Matshiqi says it's too early to tell if it was a calculated move by the Deputy President.

The race comes amid calls by ANC stalwarts and veterans for a Consultative Conference to assess the state of the ruling party.

Political analyst Somadoda Fikeni says if the conference goes ahead, it could see the ANC splitting.

"If it goes all out where the purging of those who might have been against Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma and any winning faction, then you might see a prospect of the ANC splitting and alliance partnerships collapsing and, ultimately, that might lead to a post-ANC South Africa where the ANC may no longer hold onto power in 2019. If it does, it might do so in a very weakened state only to yield later in 2024," says Fikeni.

Fikeni says Ramaphosa's campaign is lagging behind Dlamini-Zuma's at this stage.