Probability of repeat flooding in KZN has more than doubled, warn scientists
A group of South African scientists believe that the probability that the country could experience more floods similar to the recent one in KwaZulu-Natal has more than doubled.
In April, South Africa witnessed some of the worst flooding in history in KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape since 1987.
Climate scientist at the University of Cape Town Izidine Ponto says the floods were the result of human-induced climate change.
"The defined magnitude of these events that we found has a 20 year period, which means that may occur once every twenty years.
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"But when we looked at rainfall data from stations we found that the return period has a higher magnitude of 1 in 200 years for example in one of the stations we analysed.
"For us to determine the role of climate change on these twenty years return period events we combine created data with climate models.
"The results show that the probability of this particular event has approximately doubled due to human induced climate change."
The recent flooding affected some 40 000 people and claimed the lives of over 430.
More than 15 000 homes were also damaged by the deadly rains.
